This report was built as a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to evaluate Rupiah (IDR) volatility against the US Dollar (USD). Moving beyond surface-level metrics, the analysis isolates liquid foreign currency reserves and evaluates global indicators—such as the DXY, BI Rate, and commodity prices—to understand the structural drivers behind the weakening IDR. It concludes that the depreciation is deeply tied to a complex interplay of foreign capital flight and commodity export dependencies.

Report back-end

To achieve a seamless time-series analysis, disparate macroeconomic datasets (ranging from domestic trade balances to US federal fund rates) were extracted, standardized, and integrated into a unified data model. This ensures accurate temporal alignment across daily and monthly global economic indicators.

Report front-end

The report is consolidated into a highly dense, interactive Looker Studio dashboard designed for deep-dive macroeconomic monitoring. The layout categorizes the data into three primary analytical lenses:

• Currency Decoupling - Tracking the direct relationship between USD/IDR and the Dollar Index.
• Monetary Spread - Evaluating central bank policy gaps and capital outflow risks.
• Commodity Buffer - Correlating domestic liquidity with global commodity price cycles.

Currency Decoupling analysis

Feature highlights:

• Interactive time-series visual tracking the USD/IDR rate against the DXY Index.
• Highlights critical market anomalies, specifically identifying the 2024 decoupling event where the IDR continued to weaken despite a significant decline in the DXY Index.

Monetary Spread tracking

Feature highlights:

• Comparative trend lines analyzing the 4.75% BI Rate strategy against the US DFF (Daily Federal funds rate).
• Provides visual context on how central bank rate spreads are utilized to mitigate capital outflow and stabilize domestic yields.

Commodity Buffer correlation

Feature highlights:

• Dual-axis bar and line charts comparing Indonesia's trade surplus (Neraca Perdagangan) with global coal prices (Harga Batu Bara).